The EVI is calculated on the basis of a new methodology that takes up and depicts current developments in e-mobility. The Index examines two important dimensions in the development of e-mobility, market and industry.
On the Market Side, the market share of e-vehicles in the overall market is analyzed. On the other hand, incentives such as subsidies, the existing infrastructure and the available range of e-vehicles are assessed.
The Industry EVI examines how successful the country’s automobile industry is in the area of e-mobility. To this end, factors such as the current and future share of the worldwide production of electric vehicles as well as important components such as electric motors and batteries are used.
These are the central results of the current Electric Vehicle Index (EVI) from McKinsey & Company.
- China is pushing up the pace of electromobility. With 43% of the world production of 870,000 electric vehicles, China is well ahead of Germany with 23% and the USA with 17%.
- In 2016, the People’s Republic of China also increased its market share in key components: in the global production of battery cells, China now accounts for 25% of the world market share and E-motors for 37%.
- On the demand side, China is also very dynamic, but still ranked fourth behind Norway, the Netherlands and Sweden.
- Germany ranks in the overall view of market size and general conditions in the rear midfield of the 15 countries
- In addition to China’s leading role in EV supply, the market for EVs in China held steady in 2016. For the first time, China has overtaken the US market in the total number of EVs on the road.
- Cumulative EV sales reached 650,000 units in 2016, and the country increased new registrations for EVs by 70 percent year on year, to around 350,000 units (Exhibit 2).
- In comparison, Europe saw a sales increase of only 7 percent during the same period, after doubling them the prior year.
- The stagnation of the European market largely stems from a big drop in new registrations in the Netherlands, attributable to changes in the incentive scheme for plug-in hybrid vehicles. In the United States, EV sales were at 160,000 in 2016, a 37 percent increase.
- Despite the newly introduced EV-purchase incentives in Germany, EV sales increased only 3 percent since the official launch of the purchase premium in May 2016.
- The German government and the respective OEMs currently offer EV buyers as much as €4,000 for purely battery electric vehicles in an attempt to increase sales (Exhibit 3). But so far the effect has been limited.
- South Korea also recently increased EV incentives by around €1,600 to stimulate the market, while several other nations announced plans to reduce or phase out subsidies.
- China, for example, will slowly switch from direct subsidies to nonmonetary incentives after 2020. Currently, it retains one of the most powerful EV-stimulus mechanisms. Certain cities have made EVs exempt from license-plate lotteries and significant registration fees that apply for cars with internal combustion engines.
- This is a huge lever to make EVs more attractive, especially among younger first-time car buyers.
- Other countries that have been reducing or phasing out subsidies include Denmark, France, Portugal, and Norway.